Problem solving

Natural planning model

Problem solving strategies

Biases to avoid

Natural planning model

1. Defining Purpose and Principles

  • Why does this matter?
  • What are the non-negotiable principles I need to honor?

2. Visualizing the Outcome

  • What does the project look like when it’s successfully completed?
  • What will I see, feel, and experience when it’s done?

3. Brainstorming Ideas

  • Mind Mapping: Create a visual map of all related ideas.
  • Brain Dump: Write down everything related to the project, no matter how random.
  • Use Post-Its for flexible idea grouping.

4. Organizing

  • Identify key components or phases of the project.
  • Order tasks chronologically or by dependency (what must happen first).
  • Identify resources or people needed for specific tasks.

5. Identifying Next Actions

  • Smallest steps that can move things forward. be specific and physical.

Problem solving strategies

I. Analytical & Logic-Based Strategies

These approaches focus on breaking down problems systematically, using reason and logic.

  1. Root Cause Analysis (RCA) – Identify the fundamental cause of the problem rather than treating symptoms.
  2. 5 Whys Technique – Ask “Why?” five times in succession to drill down to the core issue.
  3. Flowcharting – Map the sequence of steps visually to identify bottlenecks.
  4. Hypothesis Testing – Formulate and test hypotheses through experimentation.
  5. SWOT Analysis – Evaluate Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats.

II. Creative & Lateral Thinking Strategies

These strategies encourage out-of-the-box thinking to unlock unconventional solutions.

  1. Brainstorming – Generate a large number of ideas without judgment.
  2. SCAMPER – Modify ideas using the categories Substitute, Combine, Adapt, Modify, Put to another use, Eliminate, Reverse.
  3. Mind Mapping – Visualize connections between related ideas.
  4. De Bono’s Six Thinking Hats – Approach the problem from different perspectives: logical, emotional, creative, risks, positive, creative, organizing.
  5. Reverse Brainstorming – Think of ways to cause the problem, then reverse those ideas.
  6. Analogy Thinking – Draw parallels from unrelated fields for insights.
  7. Morphological Analysis – Systematically explore all possible combinations of variables.

III. Systematic Process-Oriented Strategies

These focus on structured processes to manage and solve problems over time.

  1. PDCA Cycle (Plan-Do-Check-Act) – Continuous improvement through iteration.
  2. DMAIC (Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control) – A Six Sigma framework for solving process problems.
  3. Lean Thinking – Minimize waste and maximize value in processes.
  4. Agile Problem Solving – Iterate rapidly, incorporating feedback regularly.
  5. OODA Loop (Observe-Orient-Decide-Act) – Make decisions dynamically in changing environments.
  6. Pareto Analysis (80/20 Rule) – Focus on the 20% of causes that produce 80% of the results.
  7. Theory of Constraints (TOC) – Identify and address the bottleneck limiting system performance.

IV. Decision-Making Strategies

These methods focus on choosing the best course of action among alternatives.

  1. Decision Trees – Diagram potential outcomes to compare the consequences of different actions.
  2. Weighted Scoring Model – Assign weights to different criteria to prioritize solutions.
  3. Game Theory – Model competitive or cooperative situations to predict outcomes.
  4. Satisficing – Settle for an acceptable rather than optimal solution when speed is essential.
  5. Pros and Cons List – Compare positive and negative aspects of each option.
  6. Red-Teaming – Assign a team to challenge proposed solutions, identifying weaknesses.

V. Psychological & Behavioral Strategies

These methods help manage cognitive biases, emotions, and group dynamics in problem-solving.

  1. Pre-Mortem Analysis – Imagine a solution has failed, and identify what could have caused it.
  2. Mental Models – Apply mental frameworks from various disciplines to clarify thinking.
  3. Gamification – Use game-like elements to motivate problem-solving efforts.
  4. Nudge Theory – Subtly influence behavior through small environmental changes.
  5. Decision Fatigue Management – Simplify decisions to reduce cognitive overload.
  6. Crowdsourcing – Leverage the collective intelligence of a large group for ideas or feedback.
  7. Negotiation and Compromise – Balance conflicting interests through mutual adjustments.
  8. Incrementalism – Solve a problem step-by-step with small improvements over time.
  9. Kaizen – Implement continuous, small improvements to reach optimal solutions.

Cognitive Biases

1. Confirmation Bias

  • Definition: Favoring information that aligns with pre-existing beliefs and ignoring contrary evidence.
  • Solution:
    • Actively seek out opposing viewpoints.
    • Use frameworks like Devil’s Advocacy or Red Teaming to challenge assumptions.
    • Consider statistical data and metrics objectively.

2. Anchoring Bias

  • Definition: Relying too heavily on the first piece of information received (the “anchor”) when making decisions.
  • Solution:
    • Delay exposure to initial data or suggestions until all options are explored.
    • Generate multiple estimates independently to avoid fixating on a single value.
    • Use comparative analyses to broaden the perspective.

3. Availability Heuristic

  • Definition: Overestimating the likelihood of events based on how easily they come to mind (usually recent or emotionally charged events).
  • Solution:
    • Collect objective data from a wide time range rather than relying on recent examples.
    • Use historical trends instead of anecdotal evidence to guide decisions.

4. Overconfidence Bias

  • Definition: Believing your knowledge, predictions, or abilities are better than they actually are.
  • Solution:
    • Apply premortem analysis—imagine the decision failing and figure out why.
    • Encourage critical feedback from peers or stakeholders.
    • Use probabilistic thinking (e.g., “What are the odds I am wrong?”).

5. Hindsight Bias

  • Definition: Believing after the fact that you “knew it all along.”
  • Solution:
    • Maintain a decision journal documenting the reasons and uncertainties behind key decisions.
    • Regularly review past decisions and identify overlooked risks or misjudgments.

6. Sunk Cost Fallacy

  • Definition: Continuing with a project or decision because of past investments, even when it’s no longer rational.
  • Solution:
    • Focus on future costs and benefits, not what has already been spent.
    • Use objective metrics to assess whether to continue or cut losses.
    • Set predefined limits (e.g., time or financial thresholds) to re-evaluate projects.

7. Framing Effect

  • Definition: Being influenced by how information is presented (e.g., 90% survival vs. 10% mortality).
  • Solution:
    • Reframe problems multiple ways to avoid being trapped by one perspective.
    • Use neutral wording when presenting data to yourself or others.
    • Conduct a “positive vs. negative framing” comparison for every decision.

8. Groupthink

  • Definition: Conforming to group opinions to maintain harmony, even at the expense of sound decision-making.
  • Solution:
    • Encourage independent thinking within the group.
    • Use anonymous voting or feedback mechanisms.
    • Appoint a Devil’s Advocate to challenge group consensus.

9. Loss Aversion

  • Definition: The tendency to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains.
  • Solution:
    • Conduct risk-reward analyses to quantify potential outcomes.
    • Consider long-term benefits even when short-term losses are painful.
    • Use scenarios where potential losses and gains are equally emphasized.

10. Recency Bias

  • Definition: Giving greater weight to recent events over older, potentially more relevant data.
  • Solution:
    • Use a moving average or historical trends to balance the weight of older and newer information.
    • Regularly revisit and update assumptions based on a broader time frame.

11. Attribution Error (Fundamental Attribution Bias)

  • Definition: Attributing other people’s actions to their character while attributing your own actions to external circumstances.
  • Solution:
    • Focus on understanding external factors that may influence others’ behavior.
    • Use empathy and open-ended questions to gather more context before judging.

12. Survivorship Bias

  • Definition: Focusing only on success stories while ignoring failures, leading to overly optimistic conclusions.
  • Solution:
    • Analyze both successful and failed cases to get a complete picture.
    • Use failure rates and postmortems to assess realistic odds.

13. Halo Effect

  • Definition: Letting a positive impression in one area influence opinions in other areas (e.g., assuming a charismatic person is also competent).
  • Solution:
    • Evaluate each aspect independently—avoid letting one trait dominate judgment.
    • Use checklists to assess multiple dimensions objectively.

14. Dunning-Kruger Effect

  • Definition: People with low ability tend to overestimate their competence, while experts may underestimate theirs.
  • Solution:
    • Continuously seek feedback to calibrate self-assessment.
    • Break complex tasks into smaller milestones to better assess skill levels.

15. Endowment Effect

  • Definition: Overvaluing something simply because you own it.
  • Solution:
    • Imagine you don’t own the item—would you still value it the same?
    • Use objective market valuations to guide decision-making.

16. Egocentric Bias

  • Definition: Believing that others think and act similarly to yourself.
  • Solution:
    • Conduct perspective-taking exercises to consider other viewpoints.
    • Use data and feedback from diverse stakeholders to minimize personal blind spots.